Week One

To quote last week's post, my opponent has "some weak spots like...Theriot.."

My shortstop is Jimmy Rollins. My opponent's shortstop was Theriot. Here's how they matched up:

Rollins: 3-28, 2 runs, 0 steals, .274 OPS
Theriot: 11-20. 4 runs, 2 steals, 1.35 OPS

You think that made a difference? (It did)

I remember when the draft was over that I was happy about getting good closer options like Kevin Gregg and Jason Motte late. I was less happy during this week. Motte was given 2 save Opps and didn't convert either (including a two out, three run, game losing double in the 9th inning to the Pirates #8 hitter at home) and Gregg was scored upon in all 4 of his outings (1 save, one blown save, one loss and one 4 run protection. They combined to do this:

5.1 innings, 13 hits, 4 walks, 8 runs and 1 save.

Thankfully, my rotation was there to bail me out. And by "bail me out" I mean pump gallons more water into my sinking boat.

Oswalt: 0-2, 13 IP, 16 hits, 9 runs
Nolasco: 1-1, 11 IP, 14 hits, 10 runs

My pitching was a mess. ERA for the week over 7, and whip of almost 2. Ugly. Sarah Jessica Parker ugly. Hideki Matsui ugly. Ugly.

In the six pitching categories, I went 1-5. I won Saves and lost the rest.

Offensively, Longoria was a total stud and put up: 13-27, 5HR, 10 RBI, 5 Runs and a STEAL! Wright, Teixeira, Hamilton, Peralta and Crawford all put up decent but unimpressive numbers. How does Crawford only score 1 run hitting in front of Longoria all week?

Unfortunately, Rollins wasn't even my worst player as Ramon Hernandez went 1-15 with a .192 OPS.

It didn't end well. I went 2-8-2. It was actually 4-8 until the late Sunday Night game when Theriot (who else) had 2 hits to tie me and then with the game already decided, walked with 2 outs in the top of the 9th and scored on a Koye Hill double. That tied us in Runs. That stuff has to happen, right? Just has to.

Looking Ahead

Week 2 I play one of the worst teams in the league. Last year's manager was replaced for lack of attention, resulting in a bunch of 12-0 automatic losses because he missed the innings minimum. One of these such losses happened against the guy who beat my by 0.5 games for the division. Opening week, this new manager lost a second start from Webb, and started a minor league pitcher in one of his RP spots. He missed the minimum by 1 out. Agains the same asshole from last year who got a free 12-0 week. I'd like to beat this guy. Bad.

I have two starts from Gallardo and Randy Johnson and with Cole Hamels just not there yet, I'm starting Bedard against Detroit. I have one big roster choice to make. Nelson Cruz or Raul Ibanez? I'm keeping Hamilton and Crawford in. Cruz has 6 games at home vs. Baltimore and KC. He's going in. This should end well.

Week One: Preview

I head into the first fantasy week with the following lineup in my ten team keeper league:

C: Ramon Hernandez
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Kelly Johnson
3B: David Wright
SS: Jimmy Rollins
MI: Jhonny Peralta
OF: Josh Hamilton
OF: Carl Crawford
OF: Raul Ibanez
Util: Evan Longoria
SP: Roy Oswalt (CHI,@STL)
SP: Yovanni Gallardo (@SF)
SP: Ricky Nolasco (@WAS, NYM)
SP: Randy Johnson (MIL)
RP: Kevin Gregg
RP: Jason Motte
RP: Heath Bell
RP: Fernando Rodney

When Wieters comes up, my offense will be sick.

I left Hamels on the bench. Not sure if he's ready, and his first start is in colorado. So I'll pass on him for now. I went with Ibanez over Nelson Cruz - went with the more established guy. And started Rodney over Morrow, because I don't know if Morrow is ready to go yet. Rodney is ready, but he just sucks. So hopefully, he won't kill my ratios.

I'm literally pencilling in 7 great innings for Nolasco vs. Washington. In pen. Hopefully, he won't disappoint.

I like my team, but I'm playing what is probaby one of the 3 best teams in the league (cockily counting myself as one of the other 2). He's got some good players: Howard, Kinsler, Votto but also some week spots like Zimmerman, Theriot and Lyon. Basically one of us is going to get fucked by a Tigers reliever. Hopefully not me. It should be a battle. But frankly, I'm just happy the season is underway. It was a long spring training and frankly, the sting of Team USA losing to Japan still hasn't fully dissapated.

I'm tired of watching network television and I'm tired of SportsCenter trying to fill an hour talking about basketball and hockey.

Mistakes and Insanity: The Story of My Other Draft

This blog will mostly talk about my 10 team keeper league. But today, I felt that I had to relate a story about my other league's draft. The story is simple, yet curious. It can be summarized by the following statement:

Jorge Cantu is on my fantasy team.

We've all had battles with Draft Day insanity. We've all teetered on the brink, only to fight the battle against lunacy and eventually overcome it. But on March 29, 2009, I lost that battle.

I felt like the Narrator in Fight Club.

We've all woken up and not remembered things the night before. We've all woken up with a strange woman in our bed and not sure how she got there. She's not breathing and our hands are covered with her blood, but we don't know what happened. Well, I woke up with BJ Upton in my bed and his blood all over my hands and damned if I know what happened.

I pick 9th our of ten teams (again). My first two picks were - as anticipated - Howard and Utley. 3rd round I was hoping for a top OF, but they were all gone, so I took the best available hitter, Justin Morneau as my CI. Here's where things began to run amuck.

I did several pre-draft simulations. In every one, my 4th round pick was a tough choice between Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez. I wanted a Third Baseman there, because the position is top heavy and I wanted a top tier guy. It's a tough choice and I hadn't been able to firmly decide before the draft. I remember 30 seconds being left on the clock and only those 2 names in my queue. I then remember looking at the FA list and seeing BJ Upton at the top. The next thing I remember is seeing that Aramis Ramirez was drafted.

It was like I woke up or something. But I hadn't fallen asleep. Had I? "Oh well," I thought. "I guess I drafted Ramirez." But that's when I realized that Ramirez had been drafted by someone else. One of the teams after me. I figured I'd taken Youkilis, but then he was drafted next. I didn't understand what had happened. I clicked on my team and there he was. Sitting on my roster was a player I hadn't once considered drafting in the 3 weeks and 6o seconds leading up to my 4th round pick. Yet there he was. Sitting in my outfield. BJ Upton.

I wanted to get a shovel and a trash bag and head out into the woods to bury this mistake like so many others. But I couldn't. He was there on my roster and he wasn't going anywhere.

Now I know what most people would say, and they're right. This pick will not ruin my team. Upton is a good player with 25-40 potential. And my next two picks of David Ortiz and Dan Haren (It's a 6x6 H2H league with OPS and K/BB ratio as the extra stats) made me feel confident that this runaway train was now under control.

But it wasn't. The drunk conductor was just at that stage of drinking when you suddenly and temporarily feel almost sober. But are one drink away from speech slurring, cousing kissing and passing out. My conductor poured that drink. And he made it strong.

The remainder of my draft was a blur. Not because it was going quickly, but because I literally don't remember it. I don't remember what I was thinking, just that someone Stephen Drew with pick #66 when I wanted to take him early at #69. After that, the train jumped the tracks, killing hundreds.

In the end, my roster had players like Ibanez, Jeter and Cantu. Players who end up on teams that I make fun of. It wasn't good. I'd even drafted Votto, whom I love, but can't play, because Howard, Morneau and Ortiz eat up those roster spots. That was a smart pick.

When it was over, I looked at my roster as though someone else had drafted it. I didn't recognize it. It felt auto drafted. By a retard. But it wasn't. These were my players. And they aren't going anywhere. Until I start making make bad trades. Which will be soon.

The moral of the story is this. Stick to your plan. If you don't, you may end up with Jorge Cantu on your team. And nobody wants that.

The Draft

The draft took place on March 21st. We kept 60 players predraft. I kept the following:

David Wright
Mark Teixeira
Jimmy Rollins
Josh Hamilton
Evan Longoria
Cole Hamels

I like the core of my team a lot. I thought about dropping Hamels for Billingsley when his elbow issues popped up, but decided to stick with him. Besides, my wife thinks he's hot. I know you're surprised I'm married. Well, I'm surprised you're reading this blog, so we're even.

I picked 9th. I'd decided that Rios was the guy I wanted. I'd figured out a way for him to fall to me, but a couple of owners had to do something stupid for it to happen.

A couple of owners did stupid stuff. But he still didn't make it to me.

Here was the first round:
#61. Manny (no brainer)
#62. Vlad (probably based too much on name value)
#63. Rivera (not sure why this owner did this. RP's do have more value in our leauge and the best ones were kept, with this exception, so by the tier method of drafting, this makes some sense. But this doesn't have a 1b or 3b and he left Youkilis on the board.)
#64. Youkilis
#65. Uggla (I didn't see this pick coming, but the presence of a MI on our rosters tends to make some people freak out. This guy freaked out.)
#66. Rios (Fuck. He's gone. I'm looking at my queue and it has two names - Crawford and Kemp. There are 2 picks before me.)
#67. Billingsley (Our leage uses BAA as an extra stat, and I know he's probably one of the best SP's available, but this seemed really early to me. I was planning on taking him with my second pick, #72 and I was considering that a reach. Regardless, I was pumped.)
#68. Kemp
#69. Crawford (I still don't exactly get how he fell to me. I took him and one fellow owner even mocked me. I have no idea why. But since it was the guy who took Uggla, I assumed he was drunk or simply didn't know who Crawford was.)
#70. McLouth (didn't want him, don't believe in him, didn't care that he's gone.)
#71. Chamberlain (this seems incredibly early, 71st overall, but it's a weekly league and he qualifies at RP, which means his owner gets an extra start. I wanted to draft him early, but I was thinking around Pick #100 and not here).

So it was my pick. I had only Hamels in my rotation at this point and his elbow has me a bit concerned so I was planning to draft a starter here. I'd wanted Billingsley, but he's gone. The top starters available were: Oswalt, Volquez, Lester, Lackey and Lee. The guy I decided I really wanted was Votto, but I have nowhere to play him because we don't have a CI spot for some reason. So I took the guy I figured was the safest. The least sexy. But most reliable.
#71. Oswalt

My next pick was #89 overall. There was 1 guy I'd been planning on. One guy I really wanted. 1 guy in my queue. Miraculously, he was still there.
#89. Yovanni Gallardo (I have something of a man crush. Someone had to fill the void left by Hafner)

My next pick I wanted power. I realized with Crawford in my OF spot that I didn't want a speedy MI, I needed one who could hit the long ball. So I reached for the best available one.
#92. Jhonny Peralta (I was really happy with this pick and got happier, as a huge run on punchless MI's like Furcal, Weeks and Jose Lopez went flying off the boards very early.)

With my next pick I was thinking Closer. We have to start 4 RP's so closers generally have more value here than in my other leagues. I think. So I loaded my queue up with BJ Ryan, Broxton, Wood and Valverde, assuming one would make it back. I also put Wainwright in there for the way back, because we start 4 SP's and I like him. Things were looking good, I had three closers left and only 3 picks before me. Five seconds later, it was my pick and those 3 closers were gone.

Panic is a tricky thing. I don't know where at the saliva in my mouth goes, but I'm amazed how fast it's gone. The top closers left were Matt Capps and Huston Street and it was way too early for them. It seemed early for Wainwright, too at #109. I suddenly remembered my advice to myself. Not, "get a rope and hang yourself." Part of me has been barking up that tree for years. But this: "It's a keeper league, if you're ever not sure or don't love anybody, take Wieters".
#109. Matt Wieters (Not sure how I felt about this at first. I remember feeling relief. Then feeling much worse when the next pick off the board was Wainwright. But post-draft, I felt good having him and knowing that I could always have him. In a non-gay way.)

With Wainwright gone, my queue was empty. The next group of SP's I had my eye on were Nolasco, Josh Johnson and Carpenter. Their ADP's were a ways away, so I decided that my team needed RBI and so I grabbed the best RBI guy left out there.
#112. Raul Ibanez (Sexy pick? No. Smart pick? Maybe. It gave me 3 OF and we only start 3 OF, so probably, I should have taken an SP since OF is so deep and our league so shallow.)

With my next two picks, I was going to lock up 2 of those 3 SP's. And which 2 became clear, when the guy picking before me took Johnson.
#129. Ricky Nolasco (Not a bad #4 starter for a fantasy team. I had him last year, he was awesome.)

Now to sit back and wait to draft Carpenter 20 picks too early, with pick #132 overall. This was a no-brainer. Unfortunately, the guy at the end, who took Wainwright from me, was thinking the same thing, and Carpenter, very unexpectedly went off the board.

When people panic, they rarely do the smart thing. What my team needed right now was an RP. My offense was almost entirely filled out -just needed a 2b and a catcher until Wieters is ready - but my bullpen was barren. So I did the logical thing.
#132. Kelly Johnson (I like him a lot, but this was a bad pick. Way too early - #132 overall - despite the shrinking 2b pool. This was probably a bad move.)

Put a bunch of closers in my queue and then watched them all disappear. So I drafted the second best starter who will qualify as an RP.
#149. Brandon Morrow (I liked this pick a lot at the time. Not as much now, as he's headed back to the bullpen.)

Then, still needing saves:
#152. Heath Bell (should the Padres ever win a game, it will probably be low scoring...)

#169. Jason Motte (Reached a bit, but needed saves badly and liked his chances for the job. He has since gotten the job and throws really hard for a good team.)

#172. Eric Bedard (time for a broken down sleeper pitcher. I kept him on a different team for 2008. Lesson not learned. But hey, he's got a great offense backing him up...Oh wait.)

#189. Trevor Hoffman (this is a guy I've said for years I'll never own. Totally overrated in real baseball - one inning pitchers always are - but he gets saves. And this year, he also gets hurt and will start the year on the DL.)

#192. Randy Johnson (I loved this pick. That's #192nd overall, and he gets K's, doesn't walk anybody and is moving to a great pitchers park in a bad offensive division. Yet somehow, people in the league mocked this pick. The pick after me was Johnny Cueto and people raved. Fuck them.)

#209. Keving Gregg (going for cheap saves - JACKPOT!)

#212. Manny Corpas (going for cheap saves - have already dropped him)

#229. Nelson Cruz (Can't believe I got him this late. Could have a huge year. One of my - and many, many others' - top sleeper targets this year.)

#232. Ramon Hernandez (Great ballpark to hit in. He'll do fine until Wieters is called up)

#249. Xavier Nady (don't need him. Can't play him, but he shouldn't be out there at this point)

#252. Carlos Villenueva (Hoffman insurance)

#269. John Smoltz (DL Stashee for now. Love the man, loved this pick)

#272. Tommy Hanson (2 stashees in a row. 9 bench spots, so aim high)


The draft being on the 21st, early, made it easier for me to get good closer options late by taking fliers on people like Gregg and Motte. Looking back, the only pick I'd really change was Kelly Johnson. I could have grabbed a solid SP like Lowe, Baker or a upside guy like Kershaw. Or a closer like Gonzalez or even Qualls. But even after I took Johnson, other 2b went right away like Orlando Hudson at #137. So the pickings were only getting slimmer and mine at least has a shot at 20 homers.

All and all, a solid team to start the season.

Surprising Keeper Choices

We have ten teams. We're each keeping six. We kept five last year, and we'll keep seven next year. We'll stop at ten keepers when we get there.


So sixty players were kept for the 2009 season. I knew that I couldn't just look at the top sixty in a ranking list, or an average draft position list because the dispersal of players. However, there were some real surprises. A lot of players cut loose that were unexpected.


The top 10 highest ranked players not kept:

10. Roy Oswalt
9. Russell Martin
8. Alex Rios
7. Mariano Rivera
6. Vlad Guerrero
5. John Lackey
4. Kevin Youkilis
3. Matt Kemp
2. Carl Crawford
1. Manny Ramirez


Crazy.


Now, my top three worst keeper choices:


1. David Price (over Manny, Crawford)
2. Alexei Ramirez (over Manny, Crawford)
3. Scott Kazmir (over Youkilis)


I think one team was just thinking too much about the years down the road.


I have the 9th pick in the first round. I'll be looking to get some power, but I'm not expecting to see Manny, Crawford, Kemp or Guerrero fall to me and I don't have a spot to play Youkilis.


Failed - my attempts to trade Longoria. Largely because I decided I want to keep him but also due a rule I didn't know existed. Apparently, if you trade 2 players for 1 player, you lose a keeper spot. Even before the Keepers are announced. Seems like the kind of thing that should probably be posted on the league site somewhere. But I guess not.

Draft day is tomorrow. It's almost like Christmas morning, but with no tree and a lot more swearing.

Trading Longoria?

I've driven one of my few friends crazy talking about this topic or has he calls it: my "Three month obsessive odyssey to trading Evan Longoria." But now, a new possible trade target has emerged: Ian Kinsler. Is it better to lock up a top 2nd baseman than a top outfielder?

Kinsler
Braun
Holliday

Usually, I ignore position scarcity and that strategy has served me well over my 8 years of playing fantasy baseball. It's amazing, scary and sad to think I've been playing that long. Sad because there were so many years before I started that went to waste.

I checked with the ESPN Answer Guys and they were in favor of a Kinsler swap and I guess I can see their point. We have 10 teams, but only start 3 OF, so it's pretty shallow in that regard. We don't have a CI spot, but we do use a MI spot. When that was decided 3 years ago, I asked why. The response was that the commissioner "didn't want people just drafting first baseman." Good call there. And with the logic to back it up.

I've looked at a few mock drafts and there are definitely a ton of OF's available in later rounds, while 2b options like KellyJohnson and Placido Polanco are the highlights of their position. So maybe Kinsler is the way to go.

Am I overvaluing Longoria? 3B seems like a top heavy position this year. Arod-Wright-Longoria - Ramirez-Jones-Youkilis. There's a drop after that to guys like Atkins, Blalock and Huff. Oh well. Keepers are due March 1st, so I have almost 4 more weeks to make a decision.

God, this time of year is so boring. I mean, honestly, who can watch Basketball. And anybody who goes to see The Pink Panther 2 should seriously consider killing themselves.