Monday, August 20, 2007

Week Twenty

Clinging to the last playoff spot and riding a tough 4 week losing streak, I started week 20 against another divisional rival in a hole. My opponent had 9 starts and I only had 4. So right from the beginning, I was abandoning all hope in Win and K's. I set my sights on ERA, WHIP, BAA and Saves. Unfortunately, my best chance at winning the latter was starting Bob Wickman, which didn't exactly help my chances at the other three. I also benched Bonderman and put Cubs reliever Carlos Marmol in his place.

Inexplicably, I somehow won Wins 4-2. And that was with Wickman blowing a save for my starter (Smoltz). I got crushed in BAA and my WHIP of 1.25 was not getting it done. Ironically, it was my relievers that did the WHIP damage, led by Wickman (3.00) - who seems to be getting fatter and older by the second - F. Cordero (2.40) and Benoit (1.50). My ERA for the week was a sparkling 1.70, which got me that category. In Saves, the last category I was targeting, I accumlated 1. 1 save. Just 1 fucking save. My opponent's 3 closers got 8, including 3 from Bad Hennessey. Because if there's a consistent source of quality relief outings in MLB, it's definitely Brad Hennessey.

So in conclusion, I tried to win ERA, WHIP, BAA and Saves and I only won WHIP. I gave up on Wins and K's and somehow won Wins.

Onto the offense, where a couple of last minute decisions made all the difference. I benched Furcal for hot hitting Felipe Lopez and chose to stick with Sheffield over the simply hot Raul Ibanez. In a nutshell, these decisions were bad, and by "made all the difference," I mean "cost me OPS and HRs."

To say that Felipe Lopez was bad, would be like saying that Derek Jeter is overpaid, Christina Aguilera is hot and the 4 inch hair growing out of my wrist is weird. It would be a gargantuan understatement.
Lopez: 3-25, .305 OPS, No Runs, No RBI - This was coming off a week in which he had 7 of each.

It's not like Furcal tore the cover off the ball, but his .646 OPS was more than double that of the feeble Lopez.

To replace the struggling and now injured Hafner, I chose Sheffield (who I'd benched because of his shoulder) over Ibanez, who'd homered 5 times last week.
Good call?
No.
Sheffield: 5-28, .472 OPS, 1 RBI, 4 Runs
Ibanez: 9-21, 1.282 OPS, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 3 Runs

The problem here is that I lost HR by 2, and OPS by .017. Both of which would be easily trumped by Ibanez, had he not been resting comfortably on my bench. And instead of losing 7-5, I would have won 6-5-1. Sort of a big deal.

Every decision I make lately seems to be the wrong one.

Of course, the real drama of my week took place during the Sunday night ESPN game. I went into this game trailing in OPS by .017. I had Theriot playing and my opponent had DeRosa (who had already had a 5-5 game earlier in the week). Theriot walked in his first at bat and Derosa grounded out. This put my OPS just barely ahead, and temporarily tied us up at 6-6. Then what happened? It started raining of course, and the game was eventually postponed, negating the stats. So I lost OPS, and the week. Appreciated that Mother Nature.

My team has been experiencing a severe power outage lately. The last 4 weeks (all losses) my team has hit 5-9-9-5 home runs. That's just not getting it done. Of course, it's no mystery why this is happening. Sheffield's shoulder is barking (not trading him for Manny two months ago now looks like a serious mistake, but how can you predict injury? And to give up all those steals is crazy.) and my boy Travis Hafner is still hitting like a little girl.

I compared how it feels to have one of my favorite players and the first pick on all 3 of my fantasy teams playing this poorly to watching my own child suffer through luekemia. (for the record, I don't have any kids - this should not come as a surprise). I'm at the point where if I see that he went 1-4 with a run, I'm almost satisfied. What the fuck is that? He's Travis fucking Hafner.

Looking Ahead

Next week, with Hafner now playing again, he's going back in. If I'm going to lose my playoff spot, it will be with him in my lineup and my heart. Sheffield is out, Ibanez is in. Felipe Lopez will never again be on any of my teams for even a second. Furcal is back in. I've also had it with Piazza, and I'm going with Yorvit Torrealba, who has 7 games at home and an 800+ OPS in Colorado.

For pitching, I'm benching the piece of trash known as Bob Wickman, and punting Saves (unless Cordero has a huge week and I get lucky). I have two starts out of Escobar, one from Smoltz and one from James Shields. I either start Joe Blanton on the road (5 + ERA) twice, or Wandy Rodriguez at home (1.65 ERA) twice. Wandy is facing the Nationals and the Pirates and dominates in Houston, so I'm leaning that way.

I need to end what is now a 5 week losing streak. I've only won once since the All-Star Break. It ends now. This is the week I re-establish my team. I'm expecting a big week out of Teixeira (4 games in Cincy) and Bay (4 in Colorado, 3 in Houston). This is my week.

Week Nineteen

Okay, here's the deal. 4 Weeks left, and I have the 6th and final playoff spot. We don't need to talk about how 4 weeks ago I was in first in my division, and now I'm in 4th (thanks Hafner, Bonderman, F. Cordero, Sheffield, Furcal, Piazza, etc.). Bottom line is, if I can hold off the 7th place team, I'll make the playoffs.

This week, I played the 5th seed, the team just ahead of me in my division. I went into the week looking to move up and gain some ground. As the first paragraph of this blog will tell you, I didn't accomplish that goal.

Before we get started, let's talk about Khalil Greene for a moment. And no, I'm not referring to how someone with that name is inexplicably a white guy.
Greene in Week 15: 2-12, .647 OPS
Greene in Week 16: 5-27, .474 OPS
Greene in Week 17: 5-23, .535 OPS
Greene in Week 18: 4-25, .502 OPS
Greene in Week 19: 10-25, 1.185 OPS (2 HR, 7RBI, 1 Steal - why not?)

I bring this up because my opponent has Greene and sure enough, it was week 19. This performance was very symbolic of how this matchup went for me. He was also the beneficiary of Todd Helton's first 2-Homer game since 2005.

His offense was ridiculous. The lowest OPS on his team was Ramon Hernandez at .594, and he was the only one under .700. My team on the other hand had the following:
Bay at .511
Furcal at .472
Piazza at .399
None of which was shocking, especially given what Bay and Piazza did last week. It looks like for the entire season, Piazza had one good week (last week) and I did it on my bench.

Travis Hafner was actually having a solid week (3-10, 1 HR) until I had this phone conversation with my opponent.
Him: I can't believe Helton got hurt.
Me: Yeah, that's too bad. But since you already got two homers out of him, it's not too bad.
Him: Yeah I know, maybe my luck is turning for the worse now.
Me: Maybe.
Him: Wait, maybe not. You see Hafner just got hurt?

Hafner of course got hurt and missed the whole weekend series.

My pitching for the week was every bit as frustrating. I put up a better ERA and WHIP in 6 starts, but managed only 1 win. The least fortunate was Wandy Rodriguez (who is amazing at home, by the way) who went 15 innings, allowing only 10 hits and 2 runs but was left with 2 no-decisions. My opponent meanwhile put up an ERA well over 5 and WHIP of 1.49, but of course managed 3 wins and took the category. Now, while Joe Morgan would say his team pitched better, those of us with more brains than a 9 year old know that isn't true.

I don't really know what to do with my team. I like to keep telling myself that head to head is largely luck and I am just having a very unlucky season. Luck does play a huge part of head to head leagues, after all in my oldest league, my record in the Wins category is 6-11-3 despite the fact that I have the second most Wins in the league. Anything can happen in a week.

If there is anything at all positive to take from this week, and I cant think of anything as I watch my record drop further under .500 it's the performance of JD Drew, who is finally showing signs of breaking out of his season long slump. We all know he isn't a .250 hitter, so the law of averages says he should be over .300 from here on out. This week he went a robust 11-20.

Looking ahead

I've got another inter-divisional match up, and while I'd love to gain some ground, I know that really I'm just treading water and hoping that they douchebag with the 7th best record doesn't have a great week.

I'm also going to do something next week that I haven't done all year in this league. I'm going to bench Travis Hafner. He's questionable right now and his team only has 5 games to begin with. So the problem for me is who do I give his spot to? The struggling Sheffield, or the newly acquired Raul Ibanez, who's coming off a 5 homer week and swinging a hot stick. If I use my head, it will be Ibanez, if I don't, it will be Sheffield.

Also, I've had it with Furcal's struggling bat. I'm replacing him for the week with the hot Felipe Lopez, who's coming off an 8RBI week and has shown a little more speed that Furcal has lately.

Monday, August 6, 2007

Week Eighteen

How big a difference can one game make? How many categories can one game swing? The answer is a lot.

When Sunday's action began, I was leading my week 7-5. A lot of categories were close. Many of them would depend on whether or not Travis Hafner realizes that he is in fact not a light hitting middle infielder.

At roughly 4:oo o'clock, I was (among other things) losing K's by 2, and ahead in WHIP by .002. Yes, Cbssportsline does take it to the third decimal point. At this point I am also tied in Wins and 1 save behind. Enter Francisco Cordero, closer extraordinare, who has not given up a single run at home all season. He's called upon to protect a 3 run lead in the 9th and quickly gets two outs, unfortunately, none via the K. This moment, as Jimmy Rollins steps to the plate, is what I will refer to as Moment Zero. Which is to say, this is the moment where my week began to fall apart.

Cordero promptly walks Rollins on 4 pitches. Why? I guess he was afraid Rollins would homer and close the gap to 2 runs. Next up is Tadahito Iguchi. If he gets a hit or a walk, Cordero's WHIP will hit 2, and I'll lose that category. Cordero quickly gets ahead and then throws a great slider down and away that Iguchi taps toward short. The problem is, he just fucking tapped it. There's no play at first. Cordero gives up the hit because his pitch was too fucking good. Had he hung the slider a little more, it could have been a harmless groundout. So I lose WHIP. But at least I can still tie in Saves, assuming Cordero can get one more out. And of course, he can't. He walks Burrell to bring up Ryan Howard. Howard is on my opponents' team. We are tied in hits and homers and I have a 1 RBI lead. This at-bat should never have happened. I have visions of a grand slam, but instead Cordero merely hits him with a pitch, forcing in a run and giving Howard an RBI. There goes that point. Still, though, I can tie in saves. Or at least I could have, until Aaron Rowand hits a one handed grounder under Ryan Braun's (kid sure can hit, but should have easily made this play) glove. Tie game. No save. And worse yet, at that moment I realized that this Rowand "single" had bumped my BAA up a little bit. Not a lot mind you, but just enough to be higher than my opponent's.

You might think that would be the worst of it. You would be wrong. You see, the tie game means extra innings. Extra innings mean two things: First, more at bats for Corey Hart and JJ Hardy (both on my opponent's team) and of course, some relief work for Brett Myers (also on his team). What happens you ask? The only thing that could possibly happen. Not only does Hart get a hit to put me down one hit, but Myers gets the vulture win to give him that category.

All just great stuff. The stuff of legends. The stuff I usually hear my friends complain about that makes me laugh. I ain't laughing. The profanity that was coming out of my mouth watching Cordero choke (yes, I think this is one of those times when the pitcher does actually choke - usually the giveaways are walks, HBP and wild pitches) away the game would probably make my dad vomit.

So, I go into the night game down 3 hits and tied in homers and RBI. I had David Wright and Ryan Theriot playing. I didn't watch any of the game, but when I saw the score was 8-3, I assumed that at the very least, I would take the RBI point. Wright and Theriot combined for 2 hits (1 less than I needed) and 0 (zero) RBI. Fucking nothing. Absolutely fucking nothing.

After his huge week on my bench last week, Piazza responded to being on my active roster by going 4-24 with 2 RBI and a .397 OPS. Almost worse was Travis Hafner, the heart of my fantasy teams (all 3 of them) went 2-16 with a .488 OPS. A joke.

This now constitutes a 3 week losing streak. And not close losses either. My final score this week was 3-7-2. Over the last 3 weeks, I'm 9-24-3. Unreal. I have fallen from first in my division to 4th, and my record puts me just ahead of 7th place for the last playoff spot.The main culprits for this are pretty clear. Hafner, Sheffield, Bonderman and Cordero.

Their last 3 weeks look like this:

Hafner: 3 homers, .695 OPS
Sheffield: 1 homer, .609 OPS, 5 RBI
Bonderman: 0 wins, 9.391 ERA, 1.826 WHIP
Cordero: 10 IP, 12 Hits, 5.40 ERA, 1.6o WHIP


This is getting ridiculous. For 2 consecutive weeks, I've lost at least 5 out of 6 pitching categories. Sadly, Bonderman, while terrible, is not the only one at fault. My team leader in wins over the last 3 weeks is Pat fucking Neshek with 3. Kelvim Escobar has been ass-fucked by his offense the last 4 starts. This week alone he went 15 innings, 2 ER and was 0-2 on the week.

Is it bad luck? Is this a bad team? It's not a bad team, but my offense cannot survive weeks in which Hafner gets 2 hits with 0 runs/RBI and Sheffield chips in an empty 1-11. And now it appears that Sheffield is hurt. That he got hurt playing the field makes me so fucking mad I can barely see straight. This means I have to go into week 19, against the guy in my division who's 2 games ahead of me with no Sheffield. His replacement is JD Drew. God help me.

It's getting to the point where maybe I have to start blaming the person that Cleveland will be blaming if they don't make the playoffs. Since April 23, Hafner is hitting .230. What is he doing? Is he hurt? Is he sad? He's fucking killing me. Killing me.

Sunday, August 5, 2007

Week Seventeen

My week started with my opponent's ace, Johan Santana getting shelled in his first outing of the week. I took this to be a good sign. After all, I had two starts from Bonderman, Andrew Miller and Smoltz, plus a good matchup for Escobar and Jorge Sosa in an RP spot at home against the Nationals. Things were looking good.

At the end of the week, there was only one way to describe my horrific 2-9-1 loss to the worst team in the league: A complete and total disaster. I put up the lowest OPS, fewest RBI, Runs and highest ERA and WHIP of my fantasy season.

How bad?
OPS: 0.682
ERA: 7.25
WHIP: 1.93

Yes, my ERA was over 7. And I'd already lost before Bonderman took the mound on Sunday and shit all over himself in one of the most embarassing outings for starter this year not named Jason Jennings. The inning in which he wild pitched home two runners in row was particularly satisfying. Not to be outdone, Andrew Miller ended his two-start week with only 9.2 innings and whip of almost 3. Much appreciated. But it's expected because the White Sox and Angels are known for having potent offenses.

At least my bullpen was strong. And by strong, I mean weaker than Nicole Richie.
Francisco Cordero: 3 IP, 10 hits, 15.00 ERA, 3.67 WHIP. .588 BAA
Neshek: 2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 2.00 WHIP
Wickman: 2.1 IP, 1.87 WHIP

Miraculously, I won saves 2-0 for the week. Cordero seems like he might be done. Probably should have traded him, particularly since the saves he gets are basically worthless for me since I rarely play Wickman (especially on the road). My bullpen basically never recovered from losing BJ Ryan. But that's my fault.

On the offensive side, as I mentioned last week, I was going with Doumit and Drew over Piazza and Bay. This decision cost me Hits, Runs, Homers, RBI and OPS. So not really a big deal. Barely made a difference. It's only five motherfucking categories.

I benched
Piazza: 12-28, 12 H, 2 2B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 4 R, 1.128 OPS
Bay: 8-22, 8 H, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 5 R, SB, 2 BB, 1.189 OPS

I played
Doumit: 0-14, 0 runs, 0 RBI, .000 OPS
JD Drew: 4-22, 4 H, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R, BB, 0.445 OPS

A difference of 16 hits, 5 homers, 13 RBI, etc. Unreal. Ridiculous. Nobody on my team had a better week than Bay or Piazza.
In fact, the majority of my sluggers - Hafner (.558 OPS), Sheffield (.503 OPS), Teixeira (.609 OPS) basically sat it out.
This was the worst managerial call of my fantasy career. It cost me a win this week. If I'd played Bay and Piazza, the score would have been 7-5. Instead it was 2-9-1. That's huge. That hurts.

This is two losses in a row and I need to turn this around. I hear Teixeira could be headed for Atlanta, which would really help his runs/RBI. That could be good. Something else that could be good for my team(s): Hafner might realize he's a fucking man and not some pathetic fantasy killing vagina. Right now, he's the biggest non-injury disappointment in fantasy baseball. Hands down. If you can think of a bigger one, I'd love to hear it.