Tuesday, July 24, 2007
Week Sixteen
My recent acquisition of a slumping Jason Bay was immediately put to the test this week. And the immediate returns were not good. Bay went 4-20 with 1 run and 4 RBI. Those numbers narrowly eclipsed Ryan Doumit, my final fill in at catcher until Piazza is back and ready (which should hopefully be in a week). Doumit also went 4-20, but managed only 3 RBI.
Those two put my offense in an hole, a hole that Kazuo Matsui seemed more than happy to fill with dead hookers - and this time, I mean that as a bad thing. Matsui, once a revelation to my team, went 1-19 for the week. He scored 1 run and had an OPS well under .200. This was his last week on my team. I replaced him with Ryan Theriot for next week, so we'll see how that goes.
One of my bright spots (I did manage to win HR, RBI and Runs for the week, but somehow lost OPS) was Hideki Matsui, who had 14 hits, 4 homers, 8 RBI and 8 Runs.
The worst part about the week was the fact that I lost to a guy whose team name is Boner and whose team is accompanied by a photo of the actor who played the eponymous character on Growing Pains. That hurts. That's not a team you want to lose to. His team is led by his infield of Morneau, Utley and Aramis Ramirez. These three are the heart of his team and they all had big weeks. The biggest pain in my ass, though, was Eric Byrnes. Why? Because Byrnes went ahead and stole 7 (SEVEN) of his team's 9 bases this week. That's a lot of fucking bases. It's basically half of what Byrnes had on the season going into the week. Byrnes singlehandedly beat my team at steals, as I stole 6. What are the fucking odds of that?
Is Hafner going to wake up fully? Will we ever see then 2006 Hafner again? God, I hope so. But we sure aren't know. Another week of an OPS under .800 goes by and the list of players I could have drafted instead of him (in all 3 leagues) keeps playing in my mind.
Even worse, this loss (8-4) knocks me into second place in my division. Fucking Byrnes.
For next week, I'm expecting good things. I'm playing the league's worst team, and I'm getting two starts from Smoltz, Bondermand and Andrew Miller (Blanton's time has passed, apparently), as well as Jorge Sosa at home vs. Washington. Should be a good pitching week.
I'm benching Bay, whose slump seems endless right now. In his place, I'm starting JD Drew, who had a great weekend series at Fenway against Chicago. Piazza is back, but I'm going to give Doumit one more week to be sure Piazza is playing every day and hitting well.
Week Fifteen
Personally, I have a long history of getting fucked over this weeked. This year was a rare exception.
I have Sheffield on two of my three teams so his week went a long way toward my team's success. Over 4 games, Sheffield went 7-15, with a homer, 4 runs, 4 RBI and 4 steals. He dominated.
One of those leagues was my Yahoo league, in which I was playing the team with the League's best record. Over the 4 day week, my oponent's lowest daily team batting average was .381. He was over .400 every other day. Thankfully, it was with little power so I was able to squeek out points in HR's, RBI and Runs and we drew even at 6-6 for the week.
In my other league, my opponent and I went into Sunday tied 4-4, with all 4 ties in offensive categories. I would really come down to one day. Thankfully, and luckily, I had the good day, and won the week 10-2.
I am also beginning to sense that Kaz Matsui, despite his ability to steal bases and fuck up even the simplest of ground balls is not an everyday player. I suspect this because he doesn't play everyday. He never seems to play against lefties and if he plays a few games in a row, he'll just sit one out. This is frustrating because I need those steals.
The most important thing that happened this weekend was the return of Mark Teixeira from DL. This made Adam LaRoche expendable. I offered him for Jermaine Dye, who's been struggling and was sitting on a guy's bench. At this point, LaRoche has no real value for me because I'm not going to play him over Tex or Hafner and we have no CI spot. Basically, he's just insurance and I felt like I didn't need him. My Dye offer was rejected, and counted with LaRoche for Bay. I thought this was odd because in my opinion, Bay has the better track record. Plus, this guy had Bay in his lineup and Dye on his bench. I looked up some numbers and saw that Bay was hitting under .200 for his last month, explaining his owner's trepidation. I pulled the trigger and slotted Bay into my lineup for next week, removing Barry Bonds for good.
Thursday, July 12, 2007
First Half Report
In this post, I will detail which is which as I break down the first three plus months of my fantasy season. I'll explain which picks clicked (Sabathia) and which picks sodomized me (Ryan). (At this point, those of you with wives, girlfriends, dogs or access to books, televisions or pornography should probably bail out)
You'll notice that several players appear on multiple teams, as I was high on some particular players going into the season and for better or worse, invested heavily in them. Some of these worked out (Escobar, Sheffield) and others have not (Harden, Drew).
CBS Sportsline Keeper League:
Record: 83-74-11
Place: 1st in Division
What Went Wrong:
I got off to a seriously slow start here, thanks mostly to the combined Aprils of
Mark Teixeira (.231 Avg, 2 HR's, 6 RBI, .341 SLUG, .686 OPS)
Gary Sheffield (.200 Avg, 2 HR's, 8 RBI, .306 SLUG, .675 OPS)
David Wright (.244 Avg, 0 HR's 6 RBI, .311 SLUG, .681 OPS)
Devastating injuries to BJ Ryan (6th Round) and Rich Harden (11th Round) hurt my pitching staff, in particularly with BAA as a category. Harden is now, for me, undraftable in the future as this is not the first year he's done this to fantasy owners. The lure of his absurd spring training stats now seems a faded memory as all I feel toward him is warm hatred.
After his lousy April, Teixeira rebounded with a great May, then got hurt in early June and rode the DL for a month, forcing me to use Adam LaRoche and Reggie Willits among others as replacements. Piazza showed no power and then got hurt after only 105 at bats and a .705 OPS. His injury left me searching for a hot bat week after week before settling on the punchless Paul LoDuca, who at least hits second sometimes and can vulture some runs and RBI.
Drafted and dropped Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez after poor starts and then watched them turn it all around on other rosters.
Traded Jeff Kent for Bronson Arroyo, who was 0-2 with a respectable ERA in the low 3's. Arroyo won his first two starts for me, then lost 6 consecutive decisions, allowing 6 or more runs in 4 of them. By then of course, he was off my team.
This led me to have trouble finding a consistent fourth starter, which in turn led to the ill advised using of Jorge Sosa, Jered Weaver, Jason Bergmann, Jeff Burress and Chuck James.
Probably shouldn't have dropped Youkilis after two weeks and definitely should never have drafted, played or even said aloud the name Solomon Torres.
Personal fantasy hero Travis Hafner failed to deliver on the promise of his 5 month season in 2006, putting up decent, but disappointing numbers for him.
What Went Right:
Jimmy Rollins carried my offense early with a huge April (.297-9-18) and continued for the most part, ending the first half with 16 HR's, 53 RBI and 71 runs.
John Smoltz and Jeremy Bonderman were a pretty consistent 1-2 pitching punch, combining for 18 wins in the first half. 21st round Pick Kelvim Escobar far exceeded expectations with 10 wins, 88 K's and a 3.18 ERA. Francisco Cordero came up huge in the bullpen with 27 saves and a 2.85 ERA.
Finally found my fourth starter in Joe Blanton and recieved a handfull of his solid first half numbers: 8-5, 3.28 ERA, 1.08 WHIP.
Sheffield went from Fantasy bust in April to Fantasy monster in May and June, hitting 16 homers and knocking in 44 runs with an OPS well north of 1.000. Oh, he even stole 7 bases.
Wright also woke up in a big way, too. Over the same two months, he chipped in 14 homers, 38 RBI, 14 Steals and an OPS just under 1.000.
Bonds provided more production than expected from the 150th overall pick, hitting 17 homers with an OPS well over 1.000.
Waiver wire gems Kelly Johnson and Kazuo Matsui performed more than admirably at 2b, with Matsui being my current starter thanks in large part to the 16 steals.
12 Team Yahoo League
Record: 95-64-9
Place: 3rd out of 12
What Went Wrong:
Like in my Keeper League, I used early picks on BJ Ryan (6th) and Rich Harden (10th). These picks did not pan out.
4 of my first 5 picks in this league had TERRIBLE Aprils:
(15th Overall) Lance Berkman - .253 Avg, 2 HR's, 11 RBI, .741 OPS
(34th Overall) Garrett Atkins - .260 Avg, 2 HR's, 13 RBI, .743 OPS
(39th Overall) Paul Konerko - .198 Avg, 3 HR's, 16 RBI, .657 OPS
(58th Overall) Gary Sheffield - .200 Avg, 2 HR's, 8 RBI, .675 OPS
Fearing a shortage of outfielders (I had 2 at the time, and only needed 3 - don't ask what I was thinking) I drafted JD Drew with the 106th overall pick. Just ahead of Dan Haren and Chris Young.
Once again, though not terrible, Hafner's first half disappointed.
Struggled to find consistency at shortstop with Orlando Cabrera and Freddie Sanchez.
Struggled to find consistency at catcher with Michael Barrett (whom I drafted a few spots ahead of Russell Martin - a "good call," among many in this draft) and Mike Napoli.
In a move I will probaby live to regret, I added Tim Lincecum and several weeks later, dropped him after 4 lackluster starts. He was immediately added by a rival, and after talk of a bullpen demotion, struck out 12 Diamondbacks in his next start.
I added Phillip Hughes in the middle of his no-hit bid and moments after clicking the "submit" button on my keyboard, I heard the announcer say that he was limping.
My team's offensive struggles lead to some early losses including a particulary brutal two week stretch in which I went 3-21.
What Went Right:
Eventually, my frigid foursome of Berkman, Atkins, Konerko and Sheffield turned it on and my offense rebounded and started crushing other teams the way it should. If I can just Hafner going, I will be unstoppable.
Taking advantage of a somewhat untended waiver wire, I was able to add lots of Brewers:
JJ Hardy stabalized me at short (and was then traded away with Papelbon for Hanley Ramirez, in an attempt to stop my consistent losing in Avg and SB)
Corey Hart replaced Drew in the outfield and then went on a 20+ game hitting streak
Ryan Braun spelled the slumping Atkins at third and now acts as valuable trade bait.
Johnny Estrada provided much needed help in Batting Average at catcher.
Despite the loss of Ryan, I owned the league's dominant bullpen with Papelbon, Francisco Cordero, Otsuka (while Gagne was out), Rafael Soriano (while Wickman was out) and the later additions of Jeremy Accardo and Matt Capps. Not only was my team 13-1-0 in saves, but the latter two additions made trading Papelbon easy to handle.
CC Sabathia (82nd Overall), Josh Beckett (130th Overall), Tim Hudson (183rd Overall) and Kelvim Escobar (207th Overall) stabilized my rotation and kept my team afloat while I waited for my offense to come around.
With my offense alive and well, I ended the first half on a 6 week winning streak, during which time my team went 51-16-5 and vaulted into 3rd place.
LongTime Yahoo League
Record:91-68-9
Place: 2nd out of 8
What Went Wrong:
Several Serious Offensive Disappointments/Bad Picks
(5th Round) Bobby Abreu - 2 HR's, .725 OPS
(6th Round) Carlos Delgado - 14 HR's, .740 OPS
(12th Round) JD Drew - 6 HR's, 33 RBI, .733 OPS
(10th Round) Bill Hall - 9 HR's, .784 OPS
26th overall pick Derrek Lee has 6 HR.
The decision to move Brett Myers from the rotation cost me my intended #4 starter but gave me a top closer who qualifies as an SP, which allowed me to start 5 closers. Then he blew out his arm.
The combined ERA's and WHIP's of Joe Borowski and Bob Wickman were deadly in some weeks, in particular those weeks when Borowski gave up 5+ runs in a 9th inning or any week when Wickman faced the Marlins.
Other injuries to Ian Kinsler, Bill Hall and (shockingly) AJ Burnett.
Missing the weekly innings minimum during the last week of the first half (by exaclty 1 out, no less) lead me to lose the week 11-1 and drop out of first place for the first time since week #2.
What Went Right:
Alex Rodriguez is a monster. There's no reason to go into the stats. We all know them. He's a beast and he anchored an offense that was also led by Travis Hafner and
23rd overall pick Matt Holliday - 122 hits, 15 HR's, 69 RBI, 56 runs, .965 OPS and
162nd overall pick Ian Kinsler - 14 HR's, 50 Runs, and 11 Steals before getting hurt.
I was a master of waiver wire, adding the following gems in the first few weeks of the season:
Brad Hawpe - 15 HR's, 60 RBI, .949 OPS
Russell Martin - 11 HR's, 60 RBI, 16 SB, .866 OPS
Johnny Peralta - 14 HR, 50 RBI, 51 Runs
Despite their struggles, Derrek Lee is second on my team with 102 hits and Abreu is second on my team with 59 runs.
My pitching staff was led by:
John Lackey - 11 Wins, 98 K's, 2.98 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.06 K/BB
CC Sabathia - 12 Wins, 119 K's, 3.58 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 6.61 K/BB
Erik Bedard - 7 Wins, 149 K's, 3.40 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 4.14 K/BB
James Shields - 7 Wins, 116 K's, 3.82 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 6.11 K/BB
Tim Hudson - 8 Wins, 3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
My staff was one of the best in the league, routinely winning ERA, WHIP, K/BB and Saves.
Swapped Wickman and Pudge for Putz, making my K/BB ratio even better and ridding myself of my backup catcher and a closer it's hard to watch (who were also, arguably, the fattest two people on my team).
This was the only 1 of my 3 teams on which I did NOT draft BJ Ryan and Rich Harden.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
Week Fourteen
On top of this, all three of my leagues also have an innings minimum. 30, 40 and 50 innings respectively. In my longtime league, what this means is that if you have one - or let's say two of your starting pitchers - struggle to finish four innings, you'd better have enough starts remaining to compensate. I went into the week with 7 starts, 3 relievers and needing 50 innings. My staff has a lot of innings-eaters on it like James Shields, John Lackey, Sabathia (really more of an "everything-eater) and Hudson so I figured I'd be just fine.
For those who don't know, when you miss your innings minimum, you automatically forfeit every pitching category. This can be particularly damaging during a week in which your offense has shit all over itself and the only points you're winning are in pitching. Thanks to a great Saturday from Lackey and Bedard (17 IP, 1 ER, 26 K's, 0BB) I was dominating ERA, WHIP and K/BB. These performances blinded me to what took place on Thursday, the events of which went largely under my radar. Hudson and Sabathia had combind to go 7 innings, allowing 13 runs and about a million hits. But after Saturday's performances, I'd forgotten how terrible Thursday had been. I was flying high.
At least, temporarily. Late on saturday, after admiring my pitching stats for several minutes, I clicked on the "week" tab in my Stattracker (for those not in the know, the "week" tab shows what your players have done for the whole week). It was then that I noticed it. At the bottom of the pitching tab, the weekly totals appear. From right to left, I see my sparkling K/BB, WHIP, ERA, K's, Saves and Wins. Then on the far left, I notice my innings pitched: 48.2. Houston, we have a problem.
On Sunday I had no starters going. Because of the Fuentes "injury" I had three relievers: Putz, Saito and Borowski. When you look at your team and see that you need 1.1 innings on the last day, the outcome seems inevitable, but on Sunday, when the Mariners and Indians are playing close games, you let yourself believe that you might not get completely fucked, even though you know deep down, you definitely will. Sure enough, it was Paul Byrd out there in the 9th inning of that tie game in Toronto allowing a walk off single. No Borowski inning. Then there were the Dodgers quickly up 7-0 after two innings in LA, seemingly eliminating the need for Saito. Only the Mariners seemed willing to help me out, as they were clinging to a 6-3 lead in the 7th. That's when I went out for the night. When I got home, I opened up my Stattracker and saw what I knew I would see all along. For the week, my pitchers threw 49.2 innings. I missed it by 1 out. 1 fucking out and a close 6-5-1 loss became an 11-1 debacle that knocked me out of first place for the first time since April.
In my Yahoo league, thanks again to Sabathia and Hudson, I needed 8 (EIGHT) starts to get the 40 innings I needed, highlighted by Rich Harden's 2.2 innings of walks and homers. I had to add 2 starters, using 2 precious transactions. Thankfully in that league, my offense (led by Berkman, Atkins, Braun, Konerko, Hanley Ramirez, Hafner and Sheffield) dominated. They combined for 16 HR's, a .376 AVG and a 1.146 OPS. I had 5 players hit .450 or higher (sheffield, Ramirez, Atkins, K. Matsui and Estrada). Yes, that's a 12 team league.
In other news, my decision to start Adam LaRoche over James Loney was nothing short of a stroke of genius. LaRoche went 8-23 with 3 HR's and OPS of 1.249, leading my Keeper Team to a huge win that propelled me into first place in my (shudder) division. Of course, the main reason I won so handily was that my opponent started Andy Pettitte, off of whom the Angels took batting practice for about 5 innings last week.
So at the All-Star Break, here are my standings in my 3 leagues.
Keeper League: 1st in division (2 divisions, 10 teams)
Yahoo League: 3rd overall (95-64-9)
Longtime League: 2nd overall (91-68-9)
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Week Thirteen
- Francisco Cordero: .2 IP, 3 Hits, 3 ER, BS
- Kelvim Escobar: 4.1 IP, 10 Hits, 7 ER
- Jason Bergmann: 2 IP, 8 Hits, 6 ER
- Bob Wickman: 1.1 IP, 5 Hits, 4 ER, BS (Most of the damage here was done by none other than Migue Fucking Olivo, who homered twice of Wickman over the weekend. This guy is hitting .255 on the season, but against Wickman he's 3-3, with 2 homers, a double and 5 RBI.)
So concluded my chances of winning that week. Those two blown saves would have been nice, especially since I lost saves by 1. Only a Jeremy Bonderman win on Sunday Night Baseball saved me from a loss, and I ended my second consecutive week tied 6-6.
My main problem in this league is trying to compensate for losing Teixeira. I tried LaRoche for two weeks (one good, one horrible). I have a friend (shocking, I know) who has been insisting that I play Reggie Willits. Now, Willits is one of those players that I usually make fun of other guys for having on their team. "He never stops getting hits, stealing bases and scoring runs," is what I'm told repeatedly by this supposed friend. In theory, he sounds like a good player. So last week, I pick him and throw him in there at my Utility Spot (Hafner now qualifies at 1B). What does Willits do? Through Wednesday, he was 2-10 with 2 CS. I say through Wednesday, because that's when he got hurt and stopped playing. Out of my Utility spot, I got 2 hits. Both singles of course. Take one look at Willits and you know the only gap his balls are getting to is in Howie Kedrick's teeth. Sure enough, I lost hits by 3. I should probably consider myself lucky for getting out of there with a tie.
Good Week:
Travis Hafner showing signs that he's breaking out of it. Pronk homered 3 times last week, drove in 6 runs and posted an OPS well over 1. As the only player I drafted on all 3 of my teams I need Hafner to be Hafner so badly I can feel it.
Bad Week:
Hideki Matsui went a sterling 3-22, with a Lugo-esque .390 OPS. On a positive note for Matsui, the votes were counted, and Julian Tavarez has overtaken him for the presitigious title of "Ugliest Active Major League Baseball Player Not Named Randy Johnson."
In my longest running league, I eeked out a 7-5 win, but if not for bad luck, it could have been so much better. I lost hits by 3, and homers/RBI/K's by 1 each. Perhaps my final day decision to bench James Shields (11 K's, 2 ER) was a poor one, but ERA and WHIP were so close, I couldn't risk it. (The only reason they were close, would be Brian Fuentes, who blew 3 saves in a row and ended the week with an ERA of 27) And of course, Lincecum had to have his first good game in a month and strike out 12. A late vulture win from JJ Putz got me a point in Wins, so I guess I can't complain too much, except possibly about Bobby Abreu who had two hits all week. Maybe his eyes are too close together...
Also this week, I listened to my wife discuss for five minutes how small Kevin Gregg's nose is. To my surprise, it actually is really small. Too small for his face. Take a look before calling me gay. Then call me gay after.
I still can't pull the trigger on this proposed Manny-for-Sheffield deal. If I trade away Sheffield and Furcal, I'm basically giving up on steals, which I usually win. And for what? More HR and RBI? When Tex comes back and Hafner wakes up, I won't need more of those, will I? Besides, Furcal seems to be getting over that ankle injury and putting together some multi-hit games. I think I'm going to pass on this.
So my big dilema heading into week 14, is who to play at my utility spot in that keeper league. I recently picked up James Loney, who's been on fire. But I also noticed that Adam LaRoche is riding a 6 game hitting streak and may be starting to actually remember how to hit the ball with some authority. I don't like Loney's matchups (4 lefties, Smoltz and Hudson out of 7 games) so right now, I think I'm leaning towards LaRoche. I'm sure this will go well. Also going to go well, I appear to have gotten all that I can out of Kelly Johnson, so it's Kazuo Matsui time for good!