So I finally pulled the trigger and traded one of my third baseman. Wright was the guy I'd rather trade because Longoria is safer, but I was afraid I'd be selling low on Wright. I didn't.
In return, I got Matt Holliday and a 3rd round pick (120th overall after keepers). I was happy with this. Then, I got word from the Commish that my trade had been vetoed. VETOED!
At fault was an apparently renovated trade committee which consists of 5 random owners emailed by the commissioner. I lost 3-2. This is the shit that happens when you join a league with a good friend, 4 of his brothers, 4 of his best friends and 3 guys I know. Unfuckingbelieveable.
The three guys who voted against it said it was unfair because David Wright isn't good anymore. That's right, they all said that one off season with no healthy teammates meant that his four year track record of excellence was gone. Kaput. He was now a 10 homer/year guy. "Like Figgins" one guy said. I'm actually in a league with these people. The commissioner himself apologized and agreed that the trade was fine.
The other owner and I were both disappointed, and so we changed the deal slightly and made it again.
This time, I give up Wright and the 114th pick.
I get Holliday and picks 117 and 118.
The commissioner sent it out to the other 5 guys in our league, including himself and it passed. So my utility spot is freed up and I have the best OF in the league now. Probably in most leagues.
Justin Upton
Carl Crawford
Matt Holliday
I feel good about this. I'm in good shape and if I can just avoid fucking up the draft like last year I'll be set. I like the extra pick and I liked the email I got from one of the league's owners saying that I "ripped off" a weaker team. I couldn't disagree more, but I like the trade. What I don't like, is Holliday's now lingering rib cage soreness....
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Monday, March 8, 2010
Relief Pitchers
I wonder if Relief Pitchers are more valuable in this league than my others. Its weekly and you HAVE to start 4 RP. With 12 teams, that means 48 RP starting every week. Are there 48 trustworthy RP? I suppose, but only 30 are getting saves and set up guys can sometimes hurt as much as help.
It would be an interesting strategy to punt saves and start 4 DL'ed relief pitchers each week, just to keep them from hurting your ratios. We have a 30 IP minimum though, so you'd have to be sure you had enough starts.
We always here this mantra from ESPN: Don't Pay For Saves
I think that makes more sense in a roto league, where you have a thousand innings, so the occasional reliever meltdown wont' really hurt you and 60 innings with an ERA of 4.10 isn't the end of the world. But in a Head-To-Head league, where one bad closer blowup can cost you ERA and WHIP for the week, maybe it's different. I haven't done nor will I do any real research on this, but I do wonder about it.
Good RP do tend to come out of the woodwork each year. If you picked up Aardsma, Franklin, Rodney and Nunez last year, you could have won saves. Or you could have drafted Kevin Gregg like an idiot and watched him throat-fuck your ratios on a near weekly basis with classic walk-single-HBP-walk-HR outings that send you off to the gym for misguided and unspotted self-punishment.
Either way.
It would be an interesting strategy to punt saves and start 4 DL'ed relief pitchers each week, just to keep them from hurting your ratios. We have a 30 IP minimum though, so you'd have to be sure you had enough starts.
We always here this mantra from ESPN: Don't Pay For Saves
I think that makes more sense in a roto league, where you have a thousand innings, so the occasional reliever meltdown wont' really hurt you and 60 innings with an ERA of 4.10 isn't the end of the world. But in a Head-To-Head league, where one bad closer blowup can cost you ERA and WHIP for the week, maybe it's different. I haven't done nor will I do any real research on this, but I do wonder about it.
Good RP do tend to come out of the woodwork each year. If you picked up Aardsma, Franklin, Rodney and Nunez last year, you could have won saves. Or you could have drafted Kevin Gregg like an idiot and watched him throat-fuck your ratios on a near weekly basis with classic walk-single-HBP-walk-HR outings that send you off to the gym for misguided and unspotted self-punishment.
Either way.
Expansion Draft
Going from 10 teams to 12 was probably a little overdue. The ten people drafted (one from each pre-existing team) were:
1. Sabathia
2. Rollins
3. Haren (shockingly, he didn't sneak through)
4. Votto
5. Sandoval
6. Granderson
7. Hill
8. BJ Upton
9. Beckham
10. Edwin Jackson
That last pick looks a little strange, but one returning team in our league is just awful and Jackson was probably the best player left unprotected. It's amazing how bad a team in a keeper league can be after three years. His best players are Beckett, Morales and Ethier. And those last 2 he drafted last year. A lot of bad decisions in a short period of time.
There were better players available than I first expected, and these two teams will have an immediate chance to compete.
So now we each protect 2 more players. As I said before, 14 SP's were kept before the Expansion Draft and 3 more were just drafted. Right now the highest ranking unkept/drafted SP is Gallardo. Luckily, he's on my team. And I'm keeping him. My second keeper was going to be one of the following:
Wieters
Hanson
Hamilton
Hamels
I was originally planning to just keep the guy being drafted the highest. In this case, that would be Hamilton. Unfortunately, Hamilton seems about as healthy as Will Ferrell's bottom teeth. I know Hamels is poised for a bounce back year, but what if he doesn't have it? What if he spent another off-season styling his hair and fucking his reality-show wife instead of working out? And as much I loved listening to my wife talk about how hot he is as he walks off the mound in the fifth inning after getting his ass fucked by the Nationals again, he wasn't fun to own in 2009.
For me, this comes down to Wieters or Hanson. Two young players with tons of upside. The idea of pairing Hanson with Gallardo and having 2 young aces with 200K potential for the next few years gives me the same feeling I get imagining Jessica Biel and Megan Fox just lightly rubbing up against each other in an elevator. I have a problem.
So my 7 keepers for 2010 look like this:
1b - Teixeira
3b - Longoria
OF - J Upton
OF - Crawford
Util - Wright
SP - Gallardo
SP - Hanson
I always feel light on power even when I'm not, but I feel like these guys offer a pretty good balance. Of course, if Wright doesn't bounce back, I could be in trouble. My team showed last year it's hard to win getting only 10 HR from your utility spot.
My middle infield will obviously need to be addressed in the draft and hopefully without idiotic reaching like last year's long forgotten Kelly Johnson debacle. (little hint - I drafted Johnson)
The last 4 Expansion picks were:
1. Ichiro
2. Hamels
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Carlos Quentin
That last pick is a bit of a mystery. Sure he could rebound from injuries, but he's more of a sleeper guy this year and not a cornerstone.
Our draft is in two weeks and I pick 6th, due again because of my bad showing last year.
Note to self: Do not draft Roy Oswalt or Jhonny Perralta againf.
That's a good start.
1. Sabathia
2. Rollins
3. Haren (shockingly, he didn't sneak through)
4. Votto
5. Sandoval
6. Granderson
7. Hill
8. BJ Upton
9. Beckham
10. Edwin Jackson
That last pick looks a little strange, but one returning team in our league is just awful and Jackson was probably the best player left unprotected. It's amazing how bad a team in a keeper league can be after three years. His best players are Beckett, Morales and Ethier. And those last 2 he drafted last year. A lot of bad decisions in a short period of time.
There were better players available than I first expected, and these two teams will have an immediate chance to compete.
So now we each protect 2 more players. As I said before, 14 SP's were kept before the Expansion Draft and 3 more were just drafted. Right now the highest ranking unkept/drafted SP is Gallardo. Luckily, he's on my team. And I'm keeping him. My second keeper was going to be one of the following:
Wieters
Hanson
Hamilton
Hamels
I was originally planning to just keep the guy being drafted the highest. In this case, that would be Hamilton. Unfortunately, Hamilton seems about as healthy as Will Ferrell's bottom teeth. I know Hamels is poised for a bounce back year, but what if he doesn't have it? What if he spent another off-season styling his hair and fucking his reality-show wife instead of working out? And as much I loved listening to my wife talk about how hot he is as he walks off the mound in the fifth inning after getting his ass fucked by the Nationals again, he wasn't fun to own in 2009.
For me, this comes down to Wieters or Hanson. Two young players with tons of upside. The idea of pairing Hanson with Gallardo and having 2 young aces with 200K potential for the next few years gives me the same feeling I get imagining Jessica Biel and Megan Fox just lightly rubbing up against each other in an elevator. I have a problem.
So my 7 keepers for 2010 look like this:
1b - Teixeira
3b - Longoria
OF - J Upton
OF - Crawford
Util - Wright
SP - Gallardo
SP - Hanson
I always feel light on power even when I'm not, but I feel like these guys offer a pretty good balance. Of course, if Wright doesn't bounce back, I could be in trouble. My team showed last year it's hard to win getting only 10 HR from your utility spot.
My middle infield will obviously need to be addressed in the draft and hopefully without idiotic reaching like last year's long forgotten Kelly Johnson debacle. (little hint - I drafted Johnson)
The last 4 Expansion picks were:
1. Ichiro
2. Hamels
3. Brandon Phillips
4. Carlos Quentin
That last pick is a bit of a mystery. Sure he could rebound from injuries, but he's more of a sleeper guy this year and not a cornerstone.
Our draft is in two weeks and I pick 6th, due again because of my bad showing last year.
Note to self: Do not draft Roy Oswalt or Jhonny Perralta againf.
That's a good start.
2010 Keeper Choices: Round 1
So the 10 returning teams announced our first 5 keepers. Then the 2 new teams will each pick 5 guys in an expansion draft - but no returning team can lose more than 1 player. So each returning team will lose 1 guy.
In keeper leagues like this - where 10 teams keep 5 players - there are bound to be some sketchy choices. And this league was no different. Here are some of the iffy plays by other teams:
Kept Jake Peavy over Joey Votto
Kept Johan Santana over Pablo Sandoval (despite already protecting Wainwright and Carpenter)
Kept Papelbon over Aaron Hill (this is mostly curious because this owner traded Holliday for Hill last May and his team is named after Hill. He's a bad trader though, because the year before, he traded Pujols for Holliday and Papelbon.)
Kept Carlos Beltran and Carlos Pena over Dan Haren
The last one to me is indefensible. When I asked the owner about this, he offered the following thoughts:
1. Because of his second half struggles, Haren is way overrated and not very valuable.
2. Beltran will only miss 2 weeks and be 30-30 this year
3. Pena would be hard to replace in the draft
4. Haren would be easy to replace in the draft
5. Haren won't even be picked from my team in the expansion draft (next highest ranked player on his team - Bobby Abreu)
I protected:
Teixeira
Longoria
Wright
J. Upton
Crawford
I expect to lose Rollins in the draft, which will hurt, because SS is shallow but I had to do it.
I was surprised at how many starting pitchers were kept. 14 of 50 keepers were starting pitchers. That really thins out the upper ranks. Our league is a weekly head to head, where we start 4 SP's and 4 RP's. So you can even get away with a thinner starting staff. Only one other team besides me didn't keep a starter and most kept 2.
Now, here comes the expansion draft.
In keeper leagues like this - where 10 teams keep 5 players - there are bound to be some sketchy choices. And this league was no different. Here are some of the iffy plays by other teams:
Kept Jake Peavy over Joey Votto
Kept Johan Santana over Pablo Sandoval (despite already protecting Wainwright and Carpenter)
Kept Papelbon over Aaron Hill (this is mostly curious because this owner traded Holliday for Hill last May and his team is named after Hill. He's a bad trader though, because the year before, he traded Pujols for Holliday and Papelbon.)
Kept Carlos Beltran and Carlos Pena over Dan Haren
The last one to me is indefensible. When I asked the owner about this, he offered the following thoughts:
1. Because of his second half struggles, Haren is way overrated and not very valuable.
2. Beltran will only miss 2 weeks and be 30-30 this year
3. Pena would be hard to replace in the draft
4. Haren would be easy to replace in the draft
5. Haren won't even be picked from my team in the expansion draft (next highest ranked player on his team - Bobby Abreu)
I protected:
Teixeira
Longoria
Wright
J. Upton
Crawford
I expect to lose Rollins in the draft, which will hurt, because SS is shallow but I had to do it.
I was surprised at how many starting pitchers were kept. 14 of 50 keepers were starting pitchers. That really thins out the upper ranks. Our league is a weekly head to head, where we start 4 SP's and 4 RP's. So you can even get away with a thinner starting staff. Only one other team besides me didn't keep a starter and most kept 2.
Now, here comes the expansion draft.
Monday, March 1, 2010
5 Keepers for 2010
So our 10 team keeper league is expanding to 12 teams. So instead of keeping 7, we each keep 5 and then 2 new teams have an expansion draft, after which we will each keep 2 more.
I have a tough call to make. I have to keep 5 of the following:
Teixeira
Longoria
Wright
Justin Upton
Crawford
Rollins
The first four seem clear. 3 are established stars and Upton is going to be huge. Our league uses OPS, so Crawford is probably a little less valuable than in a 5x5. Though his is usually over .800, which is amazing for someone with all those steals. I normally wouldn't consider Rollins, but our league uses a MI position and no CI. So MI's are at a premium.
Crawford is in a walk year and could easily sign with the Yankees next year and see his HR and runs scored totals really jump.
Even in a down year - and owning him was a fucking nightmare - Rollins still scored 100 runs, with 20 HR and 30 steals. That he did so with a .296 OBP is both impressive and pathetic. Could he do better? Yes. Will he do better? Who knows. What I do know is that for the entire first half of 2009 owning Rollins made me want to kill myself. It got to the point where a 0-3 game with a HBP was a success. He was awful. Just awful. A lot has been made of his career low BABIP and how that has to come up, but it won't if he doesn't stop popping out on the infield.
I'm going with Crawford. When I think about a draft, there's no way I'd take Rollins over any of my other 5, MI or no MI. It will hurt to lose him and know that my MI situation for 2010 might be a little ugly, but these 5 guys should put up enough numbers to balance it all out.
I have a tough call to make. I have to keep 5 of the following:
Teixeira
Longoria
Wright
Justin Upton
Crawford
Rollins
The first four seem clear. 3 are established stars and Upton is going to be huge. Our league uses OPS, so Crawford is probably a little less valuable than in a 5x5. Though his is usually over .800, which is amazing for someone with all those steals. I normally wouldn't consider Rollins, but our league uses a MI position and no CI. So MI's are at a premium.
Crawford is in a walk year and could easily sign with the Yankees next year and see his HR and runs scored totals really jump.
Even in a down year - and owning him was a fucking nightmare - Rollins still scored 100 runs, with 20 HR and 30 steals. That he did so with a .296 OBP is both impressive and pathetic. Could he do better? Yes. Will he do better? Who knows. What I do know is that for the entire first half of 2009 owning Rollins made me want to kill myself. It got to the point where a 0-3 game with a HBP was a success. He was awful. Just awful. A lot has been made of his career low BABIP and how that has to come up, but it won't if he doesn't stop popping out on the infield.
I'm going with Crawford. When I think about a draft, there's no way I'd take Rollins over any of my other 5, MI or no MI. It will hurt to lose him and know that my MI situation for 2010 might be a little ugly, but these 5 guys should put up enough numbers to balance it all out.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
Starting Over
Okay, so my bad. I don't know what happened last year. I was planning to do this blog again every week and it only lasted one week. I'd like to say that I was just too busy, but sadly, that is very much NOT the case. Was it laziness? Hard to say.
So I'll try this again for the 2010 season. It's important I do this to satisfy my many, many reader.
To summarize my 2009 season, let me say this: shit
I got career worst seasons out of Wright, Rollins, Hamels and Oswalt. Josh Hamilton got hurt, Nolasco was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, Jhonny Perralta was terrible all season and my choice of Wieters instead of Wainwright turned out to be flat out horrendous.
Long and short of it, I didn't even make the playoffs.
Too bad I bailed on the blog, because I had a lot of anger last season. Most of it at Wright and Rollins. My team went completely up in flames. It was the worst season of my fantasy baseball playing life. Painful.
I'll be back this year and it will be better. Both my team and my blogging regularity. Not better? My readership.
So I'll try this again for the 2010 season. It's important I do this to satisfy my many, many reader.
To summarize my 2009 season, let me say this: shit
I got career worst seasons out of Wright, Rollins, Hamels and Oswalt. Josh Hamilton got hurt, Nolasco was the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, Jhonny Perralta was terrible all season and my choice of Wieters instead of Wainwright turned out to be flat out horrendous.
Long and short of it, I didn't even make the playoffs.
Too bad I bailed on the blog, because I had a lot of anger last season. Most of it at Wright and Rollins. My team went completely up in flames. It was the worst season of my fantasy baseball playing life. Painful.
I'll be back this year and it will be better. Both my team and my blogging regularity. Not better? My readership.
Monday, April 6, 2009
Week One
To quote last week's post, my opponent has "some weak spots like...Theriot.."
My shortstop is Jimmy Rollins. My opponent's shortstop was Theriot. Here's how they matched up:
Rollins: 3-28, 2 runs, 0 steals, .274 OPS
Theriot: 11-20. 4 runs, 2 steals, 1.35 OPS
You think that made a difference? (It did)
I remember when the draft was over that I was happy about getting good closer options like Kevin Gregg and Jason Motte late. I was less happy during this week. Motte was given 2 save Opps and didn't convert either (including a two out, three run, game losing double in the 9th inning to the Pirates #8 hitter at home) and Gregg was scored upon in all 4 of his outings (1 save, one blown save, one loss and one 4 run protection. They combined to do this:
5.1 innings, 13 hits, 4 walks, 8 runs and 1 save.
Thankfully, my rotation was there to bail me out. And by "bail me out" I mean pump gallons more water into my sinking boat.
Oswalt: 0-2, 13 IP, 16 hits, 9 runs
Nolasco: 1-1, 11 IP, 14 hits, 10 runs
My pitching was a mess. ERA for the week over 7, and whip of almost 2. Ugly. Sarah Jessica Parker ugly. Hideki Matsui ugly. Ugly.
In the six pitching categories, I went 1-5. I won Saves and lost the rest.
Offensively, Longoria was a total stud and put up: 13-27, 5HR, 10 RBI, 5 Runs and a STEAL! Wright, Teixeira, Hamilton, Peralta and Crawford all put up decent but unimpressive numbers. How does Crawford only score 1 run hitting in front of Longoria all week?
My shortstop is Jimmy Rollins. My opponent's shortstop was Theriot. Here's how they matched up:
Rollins: 3-28, 2 runs, 0 steals, .274 OPS
Theriot: 11-20. 4 runs, 2 steals, 1.35 OPS
You think that made a difference? (It did)
I remember when the draft was over that I was happy about getting good closer options like Kevin Gregg and Jason Motte late. I was less happy during this week. Motte was given 2 save Opps and didn't convert either (including a two out, three run, game losing double in the 9th inning to the Pirates #8 hitter at home) and Gregg was scored upon in all 4 of his outings (1 save, one blown save, one loss and one 4 run protection. They combined to do this:
5.1 innings, 13 hits, 4 walks, 8 runs and 1 save.
Thankfully, my rotation was there to bail me out. And by "bail me out" I mean pump gallons more water into my sinking boat.
Oswalt: 0-2, 13 IP, 16 hits, 9 runs
Nolasco: 1-1, 11 IP, 14 hits, 10 runs
My pitching was a mess. ERA for the week over 7, and whip of almost 2. Ugly. Sarah Jessica Parker ugly. Hideki Matsui ugly. Ugly.
In the six pitching categories, I went 1-5. I won Saves and lost the rest.
Offensively, Longoria was a total stud and put up: 13-27, 5HR, 10 RBI, 5 Runs and a STEAL! Wright, Teixeira, Hamilton, Peralta and Crawford all put up decent but unimpressive numbers. How does Crawford only score 1 run hitting in front of Longoria all week?
Unfortunately, Rollins wasn't even my worst player as Ramon Hernandez went 1-15 with a .192 OPS.
It didn't end well. I went 2-8-2. It was actually 4-8 until the late Sunday Night game when Theriot (who else) had 2 hits to tie me and then with the game already decided, walked with 2 outs in the top of the 9th and scored on a Koye Hill double. That tied us in Runs. That stuff has to happen, right? Just has to.
Looking Ahead
Week 2 I play one of the worst teams in the league. Last year's manager was replaced for lack of attention, resulting in a bunch of 12-0 automatic losses because he missed the innings minimum. One of these such losses happened against the guy who beat my by 0.5 games for the division. Opening week, this new manager lost a second start from Webb, and started a minor league pitcher in one of his RP spots. He missed the minimum by 1 out. Agains the same asshole from last year who got a free 12-0 week. I'd like to beat this guy. Bad.
I have two starts from Gallardo and Randy Johnson and with Cole Hamels just not there yet, I'm starting Bedard against Detroit. I have one big roster choice to make. Nelson Cruz or Raul Ibanez? I'm keeping Hamilton and Crawford in. Cruz has 6 games at home vs. Baltimore and KC. He's going in. This should end well.
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